Freezing in NH

Who thought that books like “currency trading for dummies” were a good idea?  I saw several things like this in the bookstore today, not sure what sort of insane person thought it was a good idea.  Ah well.  Maybe I should whip up a “brain surgery for dummies” book this weekend.  Can’t be any worse of an idea.

I dropped off the map a month ago in the midst of some changes, but now I’m back!  I have successfully changed jobs, and there’s been some settling in.  I’m happy with the new company and coworkers but still adjusting to getting up earlier and commuting. 

Overall the new job pays a bit more but the benefits are a bit less.  (I did factor gas at $4 a gallon into my calculation of “pays a bit more”).  Things were not the greatest at my last job, and this one is a million times better in terms of job duties and coworkers and working environment.  So it was the right choice, and would still be the right choice even if it didn’t pay as well.

Gas at $4 a gallon is doing what hordes of Greenpeace supporters never could – killing the SUV. 

I was reading two articles recently about the rising price of oil and the fallout.  Of course there are a zillion, I’m not saying these two articles are particularly special.  Anyway.  Part of what’s interesting to me is hearing ordinary folks express some relatively well thought out opinions.  I do hear some “oil execs are rolling in money and starting their stoves with hundred dollar bills” but by and large I’m hearing people grasp that the issue has a number of causes and they just happened to come together right now.  Anyway, enough about that, on to the environment!

For more than two decades, Ford’s F-series pickup trucks have been the most popular line of vehicles in the country, selling more every year than any sedan, station wagon or S.U.V., foreign or domestic. But F-series sales have dropped more than 30 percent since last spring.

Last month, according to the new sales numbers released on Tuesday, the Toyota Corolla and Camry and the Honda Civic and Accord all surged past the F-series. It was the first month since December 1992 that a car — not a truck — was the country’s top-selling vehicle. The world doesn’t seem to have come to an end as a result.

I think this is a good thing, not necessarily families struggling, but the cutting back on unecessary driving, carpooling, bunching errands together, etc.

Ford has slashed production of its F-series pickup trucks, an American best seller for 20 years. Meanwhile, Nissan unveiled a $115 million new plant outside Tokyo designed to build lithium-ion fuel cells to power a new generation of battery cars.

 

I’d like to see a battery-only car in the US.  I’m not sure they’re practical at this point, but I would like to see how well they sell.  Generating plants are more efficient if they operate at a steady state, so charging cars at night would balance out daytime electricity use.

This spring, America hit a historic point. With average gas prices per gallon edging toward $4, America’s notoriously profligate ways started to change fast. Americans are driving less, using mass transit more, buying fewer gas guzzlers, indeed shopping less wantonly in general, and lowering their previously unshakable confidence as consumers. Suddenly, Americans are acting differently; if not exactly like Swedes, then not quite like themselves, either. It’s a shift that could change the world.

I’m tired of hearing about gas prices, and I bet you all are too.  But it’s one of those “necessities” or at least a “perceived necessity” and the price is obvious from the street.  When the price of TVs goes up it’s hard to tell unless you’re in the store every day.  But when gas goes up you can see it just driving to work, and it gives you something to talk about. 

Anyway, it’s not clear where gas prices are going to go, although I think we’re going to be above $3/gallon for the foreseable future.  From an article:

Friday’s price uncertainty reflected a ongoing battle in the oil market between investors who feel prices have risen too far, and those who think global demand and tight supplies justify prices in the $130s – or higher.

[...]

Andy Lebow, senior vice president at MF Global LLC in New York, said investors are uncertain whether the past week’s nearly $10 price decline is a correction in a bull market, or a sign that the bull market has run its course.

[...]

If oil prices fall, gas prices will eventually follow, analysts say. At the moment, there may be too much momentum left over from oil’s sharp rise in recent weeks to stop gas prices from hitting $4.

Gas stations around here have yet to break the $4 barrier on unleaded gas.  It’s coming soon though, the station nearest my house is $3.98 today. 

So I just accepted a position requiring a longer commute.  I did calculate gas into my minimum acceptable salary, but figured it at $4/gallon.  Luckily we negotiated a salary above my minimum so I should be able to handle $6/gallon gas no problem. 

Just in time for my job search to be nearing conclusion (with the high probability of adding some miles to my commute) we hear that while oil is through the roof, the sky’s the limit. 

The NYTimes has an article about a Mr. Murti, an analyst at Goldman Sachs. 

A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Merchantile Exchange. 

Ah, I remember the good old days when we freaked out when gas approached $3/gallon after Katrina.  A price I’d view fondly now, since we’re around $3.80 and might hit $4 by the end of the weekend. 

Mr. Murti, 39, argues that the world’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for oil means prices will keep rising from here and stay above $100 into 2011. Others disagree, arguing that prices could abruptly tumble if speculators in the market rush for the exits. But the grim calculus of Mr. Murti’s prediction, issued in March and reconfirmed two weeks ago, is enough to give anyone pause: in an America of $200 oil, gasoline could cost more than $6 a gallon.

And apparently he’s not alone.

Boone Pickens, the oilman turned corporate raider, said Tuesday that crude would hit $150 this year. But many analysts are no longer so sure where oil is going, at least in the short term. Some say prices will fall as low as $70 a barrel by year-end, according to Thomson Financial.

Yet another nostalgic moment: 

In the 1990s, oil research was a sleepy area at banks. Many analysts assumed oil prices would hover near $15 to $20 a barrel forever. If prices rose much above those levels, they figured, consumers would start conserving, suppliers would raise production, or both, causing prices to decline.